{"id":383,"date":"2019-05-31T11:11:18","date_gmt":"2019-05-31T11:11:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/?p=383"},"modified":"2019-05-31T12:34:38","modified_gmt":"2019-05-31T12:34:38","slug":"how-ifas-can-prepare-clients-for-uncertainties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/31\/how-ifas-can-prepare-clients-for-uncertainties\/","title":{"rendered":"How IFAs Can Prepare Clients For Uncertainties"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Number 303\nseems to have a special importance in world history. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not many of you might know that the British Army defeated the Nazis in World War II had employed the 303-rifle&#8211;the third most effective rifle of all times after AK-47 and M-16. Nonetheless, experts claim the 303-rifle has been the most destructive weapon on this planet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly,\nby winning 303 seats at the Lok Sabha Elections 2019, BJP has wiped out all\noppositions parties. This has been the best performance by any single\nnon-congress party in the history of India. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the\nother hand, India\u2019s oldest political party couldn\u2019t open its account in 18\nstates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some\npolitical analysts are calling it a mandate from new India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A few are\ncalling it a debacle for Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And others\nare calling it a mandate to finish the unfinished agenda. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at\nthe movement of stock indices post elections, it seems market is assuming this\nmandate to be the one for reforms and inclusive growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly,\nModi 2.0 has spruced up its old slogan <em>sabka\nsath sabka vikas<\/em> by adding the flavour of inclusiveness to it. Its new\nslogan is, <em>sabka sath sabka vikas, win\nsabka vishwas. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Does that\nmean one can expect Modi 2.0 to be an autocratic but populist administration? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chances\nare 50:50. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can investors expect in the next five years?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Certainly\nnot a miracle! <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although, NDA\nvoters are treating Mr Modi as India\u2019s messiah, the Modi 2.0 has a bumpy road\nahead. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Challenges before Modi 2.0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>According to the&nbsp;National Sample Survey Office\u2019s Periodic Labour Force Survey, unemployment touched a 45-year high of 6.1%, according to news stories published by mainstream media. <br><br>In April 2019, as per the information released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate in India touched 7.60% -the highest since October 2016. And at most times the unemployment rate in the urban areas has registered a higher reading than the rural parts. <br><br>According to a CMIE report, the unemployment amongst those who have completed their graduation or higher education has been rising steadily since mid-2017.<br><br>This shows that India isn&#8217;t producing enough employment opportunities nor has there been much improvement in FY 2018-19. After recording a thumping majority in the Lok Sabha Elections, job creation will be an even bigger challenge for the Modi 2.0 government. <br><br><\/li><li>Although Modi 1.0 promised to pay Rs 6,000 each to nearly 12 crore farmers, the agricultural distress is extremely severe to be addressed with such nominal assistance. Nonetheless, this scheme is likely to cost an exchequer Rs 72,000 crore. As you may know, India is struggling to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3.2%. Modi 2.0 may find it difficult to achieve this target. <br><br><\/li><li>The government has also promised its voters to revamp the direct tax code. It will be interesting to see how detrimentally government\u2019s revenues will be affected if the government lowers personal tax rates along with the corporate tax rates. Lower revenue would make it more difficult for Modi 2.0 to curb fiscal deficit. <br><br><\/li><li>In its election manifesto, BJP has promised to invest Rs 100 lakh crore in infrastructure development over the next five years. Modi 1.0 had also spent massively on infrastructure; yet, Modi 2.0 will find the promise of Rs 100 lakh crore worth investments tough to meet given the fragile position of India\u2019s banking sector. <br><br><\/li><li>As quoted by <em>Mint <\/em>dated May 27, 2019, India\u2019s export-to-GDP fell to 12% in FY 2018-19 \u2014 from the high of 17% recorded five years ago. It\u2019s crucial to track how Modi 2.0 handles the pressure of global trade war situation. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What these challenges mean to markets?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the\nnewly elected government achieves even 50% of its stated objectives, India\nmight progress faster towards becoming a USD 5 trillion economy. However, if\nModi 2.0 fails to propel the sinking private sector capital expenditure and\nrevive demand in the private consumption, Indian voters are likely to be\ndisappointed, so as the markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover,\nmarkets aren\u2019t cheap anymore and it\u2019s become clich\u00e9 to hear about the unimpressive\nperformance of corporate India. Lowering tax rates is a double-edged sword. The\ngovernment might have to weigh its options carefully. Markets don\u2019t like\ngovernments missing the fiscal deficit targets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the Price-to-Earnings multiple of 29x, Nifty 50, one of the most widely tracked Indian equity indices, looks expensive and might have already factored in some positives of Modi 2.0. Nonetheless, if Modi 2.0 delivers its promises and demand is revived, corporate earnings might improve substantially. In such a case, the PE ratio of Nifty 50 may cool off. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How should you position mutual fund portfolios?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Avoid sector and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.personalfn.com\/fns\/why-thematic-funds-are-not-solid-longterm-investment-bets\">thematic\nfunds<\/a>, although infrastructure and economic\nrecovery might appear attractive themes.<br><br><\/li><li>Avoid high-ticket lump sum investments\nguided by NDA\u2019s landslide victory. Staying with the tried and tested <a href=\"https:\/\/www.personalfn.com\/fns\/all-you-need-to-know-about-sips\">SIP<\/a>\nroute might pay off. <br><br><\/li><li>Utilise current market rallies to exit\nfrom weaker and perennially underperforming schemes. <br><br><\/li><li>Rebalance asset allocation, if the\ncurrent market rallies have driven the weightage of equity in one\u2019s portfolio\nup, trimming it down to the original level would be prudent. Moreover, if markets\nrally continue in the absence of any pick up in earnings, one may consider\nreducing the equity exposure. <br><br><\/li><li>Analyse quantitative and qualitative\nfactors meticulously before selecting a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.personalfn.com\/mutual-fund\/what-is-mutual-fund\">mutual\nfund<\/a> scheme. <br><br><\/li><li>One must revisit the mutual fund\nportfolio once a while just to ensure the quality of mutual fund portfolio\nremains high, under all market conditions. <br><br><\/li><li>Mutual fund advisers should encourage\ntheir clients to invest in mutual funds depending on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.personalfn.com\/fns\/ready-with-your-financia-goal-worksheet\">financial\ngoals<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.personalfn.com\/fns\/how-to-evaluate-your-risk-appetite-and-risk-tolerance-level\">risk\nappetite<\/a>. Investors should ideally invest across the\nspectrum of scheme categories.<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Number 303 seems to have a special importance in world history. Not many of you might know that the British Army defeated the Nazis in World War II had employed the 303-rifle&#8211;the third most effective rifle of all times after AK-47 and M-16. Nonetheless, experts claim the 303-rifle has been the most destructive weapon on&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":391,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"cybocfi_hide_featured_image":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/383"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=383"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/383\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":393,"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/383\/revisions\/393"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.certifiedfinancialguardian.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}